Israel's Syria strike may have jolted diplomacy back to life

Israel's recent strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria appears to have unexpectedly spurred diplomatic engagement between Israel and Syria, rather than ending it as some had feared. The military action, which occurred shortly after a reported Turkish delegation visit to the site, carried risks of direct confrontation with Turkey.

However, the strike concentrated diplomatic efforts, leading to a significant meeting in Jordan. Mossad head Roman Gofman and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani convened for US-mediated talks aimed at de-escalating tensions and preventing future incidents. This meeting marked the resumption of a diplomatic process that had been suspended since the Iran war began in late February.

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The sides also reportedly discussed establishing a special operations or coordination room in Jordan under US supervision. Its purpose would be to provide a channel through which Israel, Syria and possibly Turkey could communicate and prevent misunderstandings from escalating into military confrontations.

Discussions reportedly focused on reviving Israeli-Syrian security negotiations and mitigating potential spillover of Israeli-Turkish tensions into Syrian territory. A key proposal emerging from the talks was the establishment of a joint operations or coordination room in Jordan, under U.S. supervision. This mechanism would facilitate communication between Israel, Syria, and potentially Turkey to prevent misunderstandings from escalating into military confrontations.

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That Turkey is now a central part of the Israeli-Syrian agenda is itself one consequence of the Abu al-Duhur attack, and something Jerusalem welcomes.

The increased Turkish military involvement in Syria has become a central element of the Israeli-Syrian agenda, a consequence welcomed by Jerusalem. Israel views Turkey's growing military presence not merely as an internal Syrian matter but as a potential security threat. The strike served as a clear signal that Israel has limits regarding the Turkish military presence it will tolerate in Syria, regardless of differing assessments regarding the nature of Turkish activities at the airbase.

The choice of Jordan as the venue for these talks and as a potential location for a deconfliction mechanism is noteworthy. Unlike previous rounds held in distant locations like Paris or Baku, Jordan's proximity to both Israel and Syria gives it a vested interest in regional stability and preventing conflict on its borders. This also serves as a reminder of the complex diplomatic landscape, even between nations with strained relations.

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Regardless of whether one accepts Israel’s intelligence assessment that Turkey was going to move weapons systems ad personnel into the airbase or Syria’s insistence that no Turkish base was planned, the danger is now impossible to ignore.