Italy faces demographic alarm as population set to shrink by 4 million in 25 years

Italy is heading toward a sharp demographic contraction. The country’s population is expected to fall by 4 million to 55 million by 2050, and then to 45.8 million by 2080, according to ISTAT.

The decline is already visible in the country’s birth figures. Births have fallen every year since 2008 and dropped to 355,000 in 2025, the lowest level since Italy’s unification in 1861. Deaths reached 652,000 last year and are projected to rise to 869,000 in 2058.

The increase in deaths reflects the aging of people born during the postwar demographic boom. ISTAT expects annual births to remain stable until 2030 before falling to 335,000 by 2050.

The age structure will shift substantially. The share of Italians aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 24.7% currently to 34.5% in 2050, meaning roughly one in three residents will be at least 65. The working-age population, defined as those aged 15 to 64, is expected to fall from 63.4% to 55.3%.

The shrinking workforce and growing retiree population will pose new challenges for Italy’s economy and welfare system. Southern Italy is expected to experience the fastest population decline, falling from 19.7 million people in 2025 to 16.5 million in 2050. The drop will be less severe in the wealthier central and northern regions.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made increasing births a government priority when she took office in 2022, but the article says her government’s efforts have not produced results.