Italy’s Population Forecast to Shrink by Four Million by 2050

Italy is heading toward a prolonged population decline, with the national statistics agency Istat forecasting roughly four million fewer residents by 2050. The population stood at 58.9 million at the start of 2025 and is expected to fall to about 55 million by 2050, then to around 46 million by 2080.

The country’s low birth rate has remained a major concern. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made raising births a top government priority during her 2022 election campaign, but the figures have continued to weaken. Italy recorded about 393,000 births in 2022, compared with roughly 355,000 in 2025.

Deaths reached 652,000 last year. Istat expects the number to rise sharply in the near future as the large generation born after the Second World War reaches old age and dies. Deaths are projected to reach 869,000 in 2058 before declining.

Migration is not expected to halt the trend in the coming decades, according to Istat. Italy’s total fertility rate stood at 1.18 in 2024, among the lowest in the European Union, and Istat put the figure even lower, at 1.14, last year. The replacement level is generally considered about 2.1 children per woman, meaning no EU member can maintain its current population size without immigration.

Italy is the EU’s third-most populous country, behind Germany, with about 83 million residents, and France, with about 69 million.