Japan Proposes Replacing 11-14 Nuclear Reactors by 2050s

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has proposed replacing aging nuclear reactors, setting numerical targets for the first time since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The plan suggests replacing two to five reactors by the 2040s and a total of 11 to 14 by the 2050s. This initiative aims to stimulate investment and ensure a skilled workforce within the nuclear industry.

The proposal comes as Japan anticipates increased electricity demand, partly driven by the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. However, the global rise in nuclear plant construction costs presents a significant uncertainty regarding the feasibility of these replacement projects. Japan's nuclear policy has undergone a notable shift, moving from a post-Fukushima stance of reducing reliance on nuclear power to one that emphasizes its maximum utilization.

Under the government's revised basic energy plan for fiscal 2025, Japan aims to generate 20 percent of its electricity from nuclear power by fiscal 2040. Achieving this target necessitates replacing existing plants, as restarting current reactors alone would be insufficient. The proposed numbers for replacement likely reflect industry estimates predicting a power shortfall of 5.5 million kilowatts by the 2040s, equivalent to the output of approximately five reactors.

With reactor operating lifespans capped at 60 years, several Japanese plants are already nearing this limit, with some operating for around 50 years. Currently, 24 reactors across 11 nuclear power stations are undergoing decommissioning. Potential sites for the construction of replacement reactors include the Mihama power station in Fukui Prefecture and the Sendai complex in Kagoshima Prefecture.