Japan's World Cup Ambition: Battling Tough Draw and Injuries

Japan's national football team embarks on the 2026 World Cup with a formidable challenge, drawn into Group F alongside European powerhouses Netherlands and Sweden, and African contender Tunisia. This "group of death" lacks a top-tier favorite but features no easy matches, with both the Netherlands and Japan considered contenders just below the elite tier.

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The path for coach Hajime Moriyasu's team to the 2026 World Cup is not easy at all. They are in the same group as the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia.

Bookmakers rank the Netherlands eighth in championship odds at 18/1, while Japan is tied for eleventh at 50/1, alongside Colombia and co-host USA. This suggests only ten teams are rated higher than Japan, a historically low number for the "Land of the Rising Sun." The disparity is even more evident in squad market value, with the Netherlands valued at approximately 754 million euros and Japan at 270 million euros, placing them 8th and 22nd respectively.

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The Netherlands is ranked 8th in terms of championship potential, with odds of around 18/1 to lift the golden trophy, while Japan's corresponding figure is 50/1 – tied for 11th.

Despite these figures, Japan's strength often defies conventional metrics like star power or home advantage. The team has a proven track record of defeating superior opponents, notably stunning Germany and Spain in the 2022 World Cup group stage and beating Senegal in 2018. However, recent injury setbacks, including the loss of key players like Kaoru Mitoma, Takumi Minamino, and captain Wataru Endo, add to the team's challenges.

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But like the story of squad value, the strength of the Japanese is not seen through conventional values such as stars or home advantage...

Adding to the narrative is coach Hajime Moriyasu's repeated declarations of aiming for World Cup victory. This ambition aligns with a long-term plan by the Japan Football Association (JFA), initially set for 2050, which Moriyasu believes can be expedited. Whether this bold aspiration can be realized amidst tough competition and player absences remains to be seen.

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In history, the Japanese have repeatedly defeated stronger opponents. In Qatar 2022, Japan defeated both Germany and Spain in the group stage.