Johor early voting: Will it favor PH or BN?

Johor's 16th State Election is focusing on the 24,751 early voters, comprising police and military personnel and their spouses. Historically, these early voters have been a reliable base for the incumbent government. However, the current political landscape in Johor presents a unique situation where the state government and the federal government are rivals.

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The main question is no longer whether BN can achieve a simple majority of 29 seats, but whether BN can maintain its 40-seat achievement from 2022, secure a two-thirds majority of at least 38 seats, or achieve an even greater victory.

For Barisan Nasional (BN), led by Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, securing the support of these security forces is critical. Pakatan Harapan (PH) is mounting a strong challenge, with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim campaigning intensely to wrest control of the state administration.

Sociopolitical analyst Prof. Madya Dr. Awang Azman Awang Pawi believes BN can still win and form the state government, potentially retaining its previous mandate of 40 out of 56 seats. The key question is whether BN can maintain its 2022 performance or achieve an even larger victory. Early voters, predominantly Malay Muslims, also have the option to vote for Perikatan Nasional (PN). Issues like the cost of living, Malay-Islamic identity, and anti-establishment sentiment could drive protest votes towards PN. However, PN's limited contest in only 33 seats weakens its narrative as a comprehensive alternative.

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Perhaps issues like the cost of living, Malay-Islamic identity, and anti-establishment sentiment could provide PN with protest votes.

Political observers are watching whether factors like civil servant salary increases or state government initiatives will influence voting patterns. Historically, early votes in Malaysia have often signaled the overall election outcome. The results from these 24,751 early voters will serve as the first indicator for both the Johor Menteri Besar and the Malaysian Prime Minister.

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The absence of candidates in 23 constituencies weakens the narrative that PN is a comprehensive alternative to either BN or PH.