Kazakhstan's transport sector growth moderates, diversifies, experts say

Kazakhstan's transport sector continues to expand, with services growing 7.4% in the first seven months of 2026. However, this represents a significant moderation from the 22.5% growth seen during the same period last year, prompting experts to suggest a potential shift in the country's logistics landscape.

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The slowdown from 22.5% to 7.4%, if calculated correctly, can’t be explained as a crisis in transportation. Partially, it is a higher base effect, because last year’s high growth rate cannot be sustained for long.

Financial economist Rassul Rysmambetov explained that the slower pace is partly due to a high base effect from the previous year, which makes sustained high growth rates difficult. He characterized the current expansion as "robust" and highlighted a diversification of growth sources. "Now we have domestic trade, road transportation, and Caspian shipping growing instead of high-volume transit and pipeline," Rysmambetov told The Astana Times.

Individual transport modes show mixed performance. Road freight increased by 6.2%, and maritime freight by 7.2%. Inland waterway transport experienced dramatic surges, with volumes up 68.5% and turnover more than doubling. Conversely, railway freight volumes decreased by 1.7%, though turnover rose, suggesting longer transport distances. Pipeline transportation also saw a decline of 2.6% in volumes.

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Now we have domestic trade, road transportation, and Caspian shipping growing instead of high-volume transit and pipeline.

Rysmambetov cautioned against direct comparisons between different transport modes, noting that changes in pipeline transport, for instance, are more likely linked to oil production and export schedules than a simple modal shift. The evolving trends may signal a gradual restructuring of Kazakhstan's logistics system, driven by domestic economic activity rather than solely transit volumes.

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The figures for different transportation means should be compared very cautiously. For example, a 2.6% decline in pipeline transportation reflects changes in oil production and export schedules rather than the same cargo, oil in this case, simply being moved to trucks, ships or rivers.