Khamenei’s post-war Iran: What comes next for the regime's Supreme Leader? - analysis

Following a memorandum of understanding with the United States, Iran is at a critical juncture, with regional concerns about a potential return to conflict. Key issues such as the nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's frozen assets remain unresolved.

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For the supreme leader, surviving the war may be the easiest part, and the hardest struggle, which is transforming the title of Iranian Supreme Leader into real leadership, began as soon as it ended.

At the heart of Iran's post-war landscape is Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father was killed at the conflict's outset. The primary struggle for the younger Khamenei is transforming his inherited title into genuine leadership, a challenge that began immediately after the war's conclusion, according to Al-Ain News.

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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its generals have never before reached this level of power, especially given their claims that they saved the regime from collapse, which will put Khamenei’s son at risk if he does not maintain the loyalty of these generals.

Reports indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has achieved unprecedented power, particularly after claims of saving the regime from collapse. This surge in influence could place Khamenei's son at risk if he fails to secure the loyalty of the IRGC generals. The new regime is considered more militarized than its predecessor, with the IRGC having consolidated power internally by suppressing protests prior to the US and Israeli attacks.

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In theory, Khamenei Jr. has the final say; the constitution makes him the supreme commander of the armed forces, and no important decision becomes binding until he approves it. But this authority is worthless if the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, whose position is still unclear, do not submit to it.

While the constitution designates Khamenei Jr. as the supreme commander with final say on decisions, his authority is contingent on the submission of the Revolutionary Guard leaders, whose positions remain unclear. Some officials suggest a shift in the balance of power within Iran, with speculation that hardliners in the IRGC might even attempt a coup to prevent a deal. The moderate Iranian president, who has been the public face of the recent agreement, could potentially become a scapegoat.

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Khamenei’s style of governance and the extent of his authority have yet to be tested, and another official described the situation as being like a ‘closed watermelon’ that cannot be judged until it is opened.