Kharif sowing trails last year’s pace despite rainfall revival in early July

Despite a temporary improvement in rainfall during the first 10 days of July, India's kharif sowing season is significantly trailing behind last year's progress. As of July 10, farmers had cultivated 350.85 lakh hectares, marking a 16% year-on-year deficit. This gap had narrowed from a 21% deficit a week prior, thanks to the improved showers.

However, experts caution that this recovery might be short-lived. After widespread rains reduced the country's cumulative rainfall deficit from 40% to 14% by July 9, monsoon activity has weakened again. The nationwide shortfall has now increased to 18%. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts subdued rainfall over the northwestern plains, west-central India, and the south Peninsular regions for the next six to seven days, raising concerns about further sowing delays.

Several critical agricultural areas, including eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Karnataka, are still experiencing rainfall deficits exceeding 20%, with some facing shortfalls as high as 47%. This lack of consistent rain in key regions like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat since July 8 is leading to rising temperatures and declining soil moisture, which could negatively affect crop yields. Garima Jain, CEO of Torq Commodities, stated that acreage for pulses, millets, and oilseeds is likely to decrease, with the rainfall forecast for the coming week being a major concern.

The sowing data already reflects these challenges. Pulses acreage stands at 2.3 million hectares, down 23.3% from last year, and oilseeds have been sown over 7.1 million hectares, a 21% decline. Area under coarse cereals has fallen by 22.5% to 5.3 million hectares, and cotton acreage is down 15.3% at 9.2 million hectares. Rice is the only major foodgrain showing signs of recovery, with acreage at 4.8 million hectares, still 8.6% below last year, but 17.3% above the normal area due to improved rainfall in eastern India.

The Monsoon Core Zone, a vital area for rain-fed agriculture stretching from Gujarat across central India to West Bengal, is particularly affected. This region is crucial for crops like soybean, pulses, and millets. A prolonged dry spell during the peak sowing window could further reduce acreage and impact yield prospects later in the season.

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Lower rainfall in key agricultural regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat since July 8 means rising temperatures and declining soil moisture could start weighing on crop yields. Based on current conditions, we can confidently say acreage under pulses, millets and oilseeds is likely to decline. The bigger concern is the rainfall forecast for the next seven to 10 days.