Konfederacja's Key Role. New Poll Shows Who Could Decide the Majority in the Sejm

A new poll indicates that Civic Coalition (KO) would emerge as the leading party if parliamentary elections were held on the upcoming Sunday, securing 29.2% of the vote. This represents a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to a previous survey in mid-June.

The Law and Justice (PiS) party is projected to take second place with 24.2% of the vote, showing a minor increase of 0.1 percentage points. The gap between KO and PiS currently stands at 5 percentage points.

Konfederacja is positioned third with 10.7% support, a drop of 1.5 percentage points. Following closely is Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, led by Grzegorz Braun, with 10.1% of respondents indicating their support, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the prior poll. Other parties polled include Lewica with 7.8%, PSL with 4.1%, Partia Razem with 2.8%, and Polska 2050 with 1.1%. Approximately 10% of respondents remain undecided.

A mandate simulation, utilizing calculations from Professor Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University, suggests KO would form the largest parliamentary club with 165 seats, while PiS could secure 135 seats. Konfederacja would gain 58 seats, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 55 seats, with Lewica obtaining 47. PSL, Partia Razem, and Polska 2050 would not cross the electoral threshold.

Forming a majority in the 460-seat Sejm requires at least 231 mandates. The simulation indicates that KO and Lewica combined would have 212 seats, insufficient for an independent majority. In contrast, PiS, along with Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, could collectively hold 248 seats, granting them a majority and the potential to form a government. This scenario suggests that right-wing parties, specifically Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, would possess the most significant negotiation leverage in forming a majority coalition.