Krakow referendum a warning for Tusk, KO risks losing political momentum

A referendum in Krakow could deliver a stark political warning to Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO), potentially undermining its post-election momentum.

If exit poll results hold, May 25 could mark the worst day for KO since June of last year. While the referendum's outcome is influenced by local factors such as clean transport and paid parking zones, over which the Prime Minister has limited control, a loss in a major Polish city would be a significant blow to the ruling party's authority. This is particularly true for a party that has dominated opinion polls for months.

The article argues that in politics, trends matter more than individual poll numbers or votes. A lost referendum in Krakow could initiate a political dynamic detrimental to the ruling party. The author notes that Tusk's strategy after Rafał Trzaskowski's loss last year involved waiting and making minor government adjustments, which eventually led to a rise in KO's support. This approach also caused the main opposition party, PiS, to radicalize, leading to internal disputes that could split the party and jeopardize its chances in the 2027 elections.

If the official referendum results mirror the exit polls, it would suggest that Tusk's primary hope lies in the "rot" within the right-wing opposition, rather than the strength of the liberal camp. This situation could also exacerbate existing tensions between opposition figures like Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak.