Kremlin Not Considering Real Ukraine Talks Before 2027, Bets on US Pressure

Russia does not intend to engage in substantive negotiations with Ukraine before early 2027, as President Vladimir Putin believes he can achieve his military goals without compromise. Simultaneously, Moscow is attempting to persuade the U.S. administration to pressure Kyiv into accepting major concessions, according to Ukrainian officials involved in the negotiation process and sources familiar with discussions between Russia and the United States, as reported by the Financial Times.

The Kremlin believes time is still working in its favor, and a resumption of trilateral negotiations involving the U.S. is unlikely before the end of summer. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of deep strikes into Russian territory to increase pressure on Moscow. However, FT sources suggest these attacks have not altered Putin's stance; he continues to believe Russia can win the war and that the Kremlin's objectives remain attainable.

Ukrainian officials involved in peace negotiations have repeatedly told U.S. interlocutors that Washington should compel Kyiv to accept significant territorial and political concessions. Under these conditions, the prospects for resuming negotiations with U.S. participation remain slim. "At the moment, the most convenient scenario for the Russians is for the Americans to 'deliver' Ukraine to them. They do not hint at any concessions on their part and repeat the same objectives every time. Basically, the conditions they set exclude the existence of a real basis for negotiations," a source close to Moscow's power circles told the publication.

Although the Russian ground offensive has slowed in recent months, Putin has ordered his military to complete the occupation of the entire Donetsk region by the end of this year, according to an assessment by Ukrainian intelligence services consulted by the Financial Times. The document was presented to President Zelenskyy, and its conclusions were confirmed by two individuals who claim to have recently spoken with the Kremlin leader. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities state they are trying to keep the path to dialogue open. Zelenskyy recently said Kyiv had transmitted new negotiation proposals to international partners, including states he described as "friends of Putin." The Ukrainian leader also stated that there are still chances the war could end by the end of this year if international pressure on Russia increases.

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At the moment, the most convenient scenario for the Russians is for the Americans to 'deliver' Ukraine to them. They do not hint at any concessions on their part and repeat the same objectives every time. Basically, the conditions they set exclude the existence of a real basis for negotiations.