Krzysztof Adam Kowalczyk: Poland Is Doing Well. Here Is How to Derail Its Success

In 1989, an older Norwegian woman told the author that Poland would succeed too. At the time, a citizen of a bankrupt country found the prediction hard to believe. Thirty-seven years later, he says, it has largely come true. Poland is not a second Norway, but it has joined Europe’s relatively prosperous countries without the benefit of oil and gas reserves.

The latest EY European Economic Outlook highlights Poland as Europe’s best-performing economy, with GDP expected to rise by nearly 4% this year. That is welcome news, the author writes, but it also raises a harder question: how long can the pace of growth continue?

Demography is already working against the country. Fewer young people are entering adulthood, while the postwar baby boom is moving into early retirement by European standards. Together, those trends are removing 150,000 people from Poland’s labor market each year. A sensible migration policy could bring in skilled workers from culturally close countries, but the author sees little reason for optimism after observing how easily hostility toward Ukrainians can be stirred, even though they support Poland’s GDP through their work.

Automation and robotics are therefore becoming essential for companies. Some firms have invested for years, treating the technology as a competitive advantage. Yet Poland still has twice fewer robots per 10,000 workers than the global average. New data from Statistics Poland indicates that investment has finally begun to accelerate, partly because funding from the National Recovery Plan, SAFE and wider European Union funds has become available.

That financing will gradually fade, making private-sector investment more important. Economist Ignacy Morawski says state-owned companies currently account for the expanding investment boom, while private firms are increasing development spending more slowly. State businesses respond to government priorities such as defense and infrastructure. Private companies need confidence that conditions will allow them to multiply their investments. Regulatory conditions, judicial efficiency, the continuing dispute over the judiciary and repeated presidential vetoes are instead creating unpredictability. The article argues that Poland’s growth also faces a dangerous tilt in public finances, while the divided political class lacks the ability to restore stability.

“

You will see, you will succeed too. We were a poor country back in the 1960s.