Latvia warns of potential Russian hybrid attacks on Baltic states

Latvia's security services have issued a stark warning regarding Russia's potential for hybrid attacks and provocations against the Baltic states in the near future. The Security Analysis Service (SAB) assesses that such actions are likely intended to exert psychological pressure on NATO members, their officials, and the public.

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Latvia's security services assess that there is a probability that Russia could launch hybrid attacks and provocations against the Baltic states in the near future, aiming to increase psychological pressure on NATO countries, their officials, and the public.

The primary objective behind these potential Russian maneuvers, according to SAB, is to influence NATO countries into reducing their support for Ukraine or making concessions to Russia. This pressure is framed within the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. The service noted that Russia has recently intensified its psychological and informational campaigns targeting Western nations to achieve these goals.

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The goal of such pressure is to ensure that, unwilling to escalate a possible conflict with Russia, NATO countries reduce support for Ukraine or are prepared to make concessions to Russia, considering the war in Ukraine and its possible diplomatic solution.

However, SAB considers the likelihood of these Russian provocations effectively compelling NATO to alter its policy toward Ukraine to be very low. The agency pointed out that Russia's decision-making process is highly secretive and autocratic. This lack of critical information filtering to top officials significantly increases the risk of miscalculations by the Russian regime, both in its assessments and in its decisions regarding actions against NATO.

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According to SAB, the probability that such Russian provocations could be effective and force NATO to change its policy towards Ukraine is very low.

SAB estimates that the heightened Russian pressure on NATO is largely a response to current military setbacks in Ukraine and increasing domestic political and economic challenges faced by Vladimir Putin's regime. Despite the possibility of hybrid attacks, the agency emphasizes that the probability of a large-scale conventional Russian offensive against the Baltic states remains very low at present. This is primarily due to the concentration of the majority of Russia's military resources on the front lines in Ukraine.

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However, as SAB warns, the Russian regime is characterized by an extremely secret and autocratic decision-making process, during which top officials receive selectively selected and uncritical information – this significantly increases the risk that the Russian regime may make mistakes both in its assessments and in making decisions about actions against NATO.