Le Pen projected to win French election despite embezzlement conviction

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's National Rally, is poised to win the upcoming presidential election, according to a recent poll. This projection holds true even though she has been convicted of embezzlement.

A poll conducted by Ifop for LCI and Le Figaro indicates Le Pen would defeat all her rivals. In the first round, she is projected to receive 36% of the vote, a four-point increase since mid-June and nearly thirteen points higher than her performance in the 2022 elections. Her strongest competitor, centrist Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister under Macron, is polling at 19%. Other contenders, Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are each at 15%.

In a hypothetical second-round runoff, Le Pen is predicted to defeat Philippe 54% to 46%, Attal 55% to 45%, and Mélenchon 70% to 30%. Another poll by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL suggests a similar outcome, though with a narrower margin in the second round.

These results suggest that Le Pen's conviction may have bolstered her campaign rather than harmed it. Part of her strong showing is also attributed to the clarity provided by her official announcement to lead the National Rally in the upcoming elections.