Lebanon conflict: Experts say current situation differs from 2006, warn of prolonged tensions

Negotiations to cement a ceasefire in southern Lebanon are raising questions about whether the region is heading toward a repeat of the post-2006 war model or a completely new phase. Nearly two decades after UN Resolution 1701 led to the deployment of the Lebanese army and efforts to regulate the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, current conditions appear starkly different. The scale of destruction in the south is deeper, and the international approach to future steps seems more forceful.

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Talk of ending the conflict in Lebanon can only be achieved through a set of basic goals: ending the war definitively, withdrawing Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territory, returning prisoners, launching reconstruction and securing the safe and sustainable return of displaced people to their areas.

University professor and lawyer Ali Mourad told Asharq Al-Awsat that the reality on the ground demands a new reading of the war and the future of the south. He described the south as occupied, devastated on an unprecedented scale, and trapped in a displacement crisis likely to persist. Mourad emphasized that ending the conflict requires definitive goals: ending the war, withdrawing Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territory, returning prisoners, launching reconstruction, and ensuring the safe return of displaced people.

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Iran’s attempt to take hold of the Lebanese file.

A significant fear, according to Mourad, is "Iran’s attempt to take hold of the Lebanese file." He warned that such a move could prolong the management of the conflict rather than end it, keeping the roots of tension alive and blocking a stable settlement. Mourad stated that there would be "no real end to this conflict without a clear and decisive handling of Hezbollah’s weapons." Leaving this issue unresolved, he argued, would place Lebanon in a situation entirely unlike the one that followed the 2006 war.

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There would be no real end to this conflict without a clear and decisive handling of Hezbollah’s weapons.

Retired Maj. Gen. Hisham Jaber, head of the Middle East Center for Studies, agreed that the situation in southern Lebanon "differs radically from the phase that followed the July 2006 war." He noted that talk of returning to the previous formula is no longer realistic due to current changes. Mourad added that the south is destroyed on an unprecedented scale, and military realities suggest existing equations are difficult to overturn. He stressed that sustainable political solutions addressing the crisis's roots are necessary, rather than merely managing it. Any approach that fails to address the causes, he warned, will lead to the crisis's reproduction.

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The south today is destroyed on an unprecedented scale, while the battlefield and military realities clearly show that the existing equations are difficult to overturn in the foreseeable future.