Lebanon Fears Hezbollah May Launch New Attacks Amid Iran Tensions

Lebanon faces renewed fears of conflict as Hezbollah might reignite hostilities in support of Iran, amidst deteriorating regional conditions and faltering US-Iranian understandings. The party's past interventions, including its support for Gaza in 2023 and retaliation following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, fuel these concerns. Although Israeli military operations in Lebanon have decreased significantly in recent weeks, and Hezbollah has observed a ceasefire since mid-June, the resumption of attacks between the US and Iran raises the possibility that Tehran could once again call upon its regional proxies, including Hezbollah, to open new fronts. Observers believe Iran might activate these groups if it perceives a major escalation against it. These anxieties are amplified by past pledges from Hezbollah officials. MP Ali Ammar recently vowed to stand with Iran in a new war, while Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem stressed maintaining diplomatic channels between the US and Iran, simultaneously criticizing direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. Political analyst Qassem Qassir noted that Hezbollah's "red lines" for returning to "resistance in its broadest sense" are unclear but suggested that a significant Israeli assault on areas like the Ali al-Taher hill, or attacks on other Lebanese territories outside direct Israeli control, could compel the group to respond. He added that the ultimate decision rests with Hezbollah's leadership, which has indicated it will not accept a return to the pre-March 2 status quo. The situation remains dependent on ground conditions and the political climate, with stalled Lebanese-Israeli negotiations potentially prompting Hezbollah to resume military operations. Security analyst Dr. Riad Kahwaji stated that Iran, not Hezbollah's leadership, determines the "red lines" that would prompt the party to resume fighting, asserting that Tehran alone decides when Hezbollah will reopen a support front.

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no one can definitively determine the red lines drawn by Hezbollah, which, if crossed, would prompt a return to resistance in its broadest sense.