Liberals must be extremely happy

Sweden’s Liberals have reason to be “extremely happy” after a Novus poll placed them above the 4% threshold for the first time since the previous election. Svenska Dagbladet’s live election coverage described the party as being on a positive trend, with leader Simona Mohamsson appearing stronger in debates, including a recent SVT discussion on migration.

The shift has also changed the election outlook. With one week remaining, SvD’s “Who wins the election” model now gives Magdalena Andersson victory in 872 of 1,000 simulated elections, down from 900. Ulf Kristersson’s figure has risen from 100 to 128 simulated wins.

The article questions whether opposition parties misjudged the situation when they spent weeks fighting among themselves. Liberal support may partly reflect tactical votes from voters who believe the party is needed to secure a Tidö coalition victory. But if the Liberals enter Parliament and the election still goes against the governing side, the Moderates could lose votes they might otherwise have received, potentially leaving Jimmie Åkesson as the clear opposition leader.

The day’s political agenda included press conferences by the Tidö parties on new police tools, a Social Democratic briefing on planned cuts, a presentation of the Sweden Democrats’ election manifesto by Åkesson, and defense-related announcements. The Election Authority also corrected its estimate of wrongly registered advance votes, saying a maximum of 500 voters may be impossible to identify, rather than the 4,000 previously reported. “Our analysis shows that there are at most 500 voters who will probably not be identifiable. That figure may decrease. This is of course very serious and must not be allowed to happen,” said Anna Nyqvist, the authority’s chief administrative officer.

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Our analysis shows that there are at most 500 voters who will probably not be identifiable. That figure may decrease. This is of course very serious and must not be allowed to happen.