Low-pressure system brings days of rain to central and southern Taiwan; Typhoon Sarca's path uncertain, expert notes potential westward shift

Southern and central Taiwan are experiencing continuous rainfall due to a low-pressure trough, prompting heavy rain advisories for Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Hualien. The weather is expected to persist for several days, with potential for strong thunderstorms in northern and northeastern regions.

Typhoon Sarca's trajectory is highly variable, with forecasts indicating it could move north or west. Senior consultant Wu Sheng-yu of WeatherRisk Explores noted that while Sarca's immediate impact on Taiwan is uncertain, its movement is part of a larger monsoon system influencing the region. Another low-pressure center east of the Ryukyu Islands is expected to move towards northern Taiwan and the Zhejiang coast, further driving moisture inland.

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The future path of Typhoon Sarca has high variability, with possibilities of moving north or west.

Wu explained that the ongoing monsoon is expected to bring abundant moisture to Taiwan until at least Sunday, the 23rd, and possibly into Monday, the 24th. Southern areas, particularly south of Chiayi, are likely to see heavy to torrential rain. The development of convection over land could also lead to severe thunderstorms in central and northern Taiwan.

Regarding Sarca, Wu stated that its path after Wednesday the 26th remains uncertain. While some models suggest a northward turn, others indicate a westward movement. He suggested that if the South China Sea and mainland China's southern coast remain under the influence of the monsoon trough, the Pacific high-pressure system may not extend significantly westward, increasing the likelihood of Sarca moving north near the Ryukyu Islands. A westward path would be more probable only if Sarca breaks free from the Pacific high-pressure control and gets drawn into the monsoon trough's circulation.

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Unless Sarca experiences a situation similar to Typhoon Bailu, where it breaks free from the control of the Pacific high pressure and is instead drawn into the circulation of the monsoon low, only then is there a higher probability of it continuing to move west.