Lula holds narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in possible 2026 runoff, BTG/Nexus poll shows

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain virtually tied in a possible second round of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a BTG/Nexus poll released on Aug. 31.

Lula received 46% of voting intentions against 45% for Bolsonaro, exactly the same result as in the previous poll released on Aug. 24. Eight percent of respondents chose blank, null or neither candidate, while 1% said they did not know whom they would vote for.

The poll also showed a statistical tie between Lula and Ronaldo Caiado. Lula had 44% against 42% for the former governor of Goiás. Compared with the previous survey, Lula fell one point and Caiado rose two, both within the margin of error.

Lula led in the other tested matchups. He stood at 46% against 41% for Romeu Zema, compared with a 47%-41% result in the previous poll. Against Renan Santos, Lula led 47% to 38%, after a 47%-36% advantage in the earlier survey. The poll did not test other potential candidates, including writer Augusto Cury.

Nexus interviewed 2,005 people aged 16 and older by telephone between Aug. 28 and 30. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, a 95% confidence level and registration with the Superior Electoral Court under code BR-08900/2026.

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The election is in the mud, and voters have settled into a contest to determine who is the ‘less corrupt’.