Lula’s Lead Over Bolsonaro Narrows Ahead of Brazil Election, Poll Shows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over right-wing rival Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed ahead of Brazil’s October elections, with the two candidates in a technical tie in a possible runoff, according to a Quaest poll commissioned by Globo.

The poll gives Lula 42% and Bolsonaro 41% in a second-round matchup. An earlier survey released on Aug. 14 had Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 40%.

Lula remains ahead in the first round, with 37% of the vote. Bolsonaro has 30%, followed by writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury with 10% and Redan Santos with 3%. The survey marks the third major poll this week to place Cury in third, a position the article links to his television appearances and reach on social media.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff. The first round will take place on Oct. 4, when Brazilians will also elect the vice president, members of the National Congress and governors. A second round, if required, is scheduled for Oct. 25.

Quaest conducted the survey among 2,004 people between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.