Malaysia braces for extreme heat as El Nino intensifies

Parts of Malaysia should prepare for scorching temperatures potentially surpassing 40 degrees Celsius in the upcoming months as the El Nino phenomenon intensifies, bringing hotter and drier conditions, according to experts.

Climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia stated that El Nino is expected to peak by the end of the year before subsiding in early 2027. He noted that the phenomenon was forecast to develop into an extreme El Nino, possibly exceeding the intensity of the 1997-98 and 2015-16 episodes. "Owing to global warming and current warming trends, the world is likely to experience much hotter conditions, and this year or next year could be among the warmest years on record," he said.

Although Malaysia has not yet recorded constant temperatures above 37 degrees Celsius or prolonged heatwaves, the risk is likely to increase in the coming months, potentially pushing temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius due to El Nino. However, Tangang pointed out that Malaysia has experienced increased rainfall in June and July, influenced by El Nino over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia. He cautioned that El Nino could still trigger extreme weather, including intense rainfall and flooding in some areas.

Southern Sumatra, western Kalimantan, and southern Sarawak might face wetter conditions and increased flood risks later in the year. Conversely, northern Sarawak and Sabah could experience drier weather, heightening the danger of forest fires and haze. Prolonged heat and dryness could also impact water resources, agricultural output, food security, and public health, experts warned.

Emeritus Prof Azizan Abu Samah, a meteorologist from Universiti Malaya, explained that stronger El Nino conditions can suppress convection and reduce cloud formation, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface and drive up temperatures. He added that El Nino's peak towards year-end coincides with the northeast monsoon. Rainfall could be 10% to 20% lower along the east coast between October and December, while Sabah and Sarawak might see reduced rainfall from January to February. He urged authorities to conserve water in dams to ensure sufficient supplies for domestic use during periods of increased evaporation.

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Owing to global warming and current warming trends, the world is likely to experience much hotter conditions, and this year or next year could be among the warmest years on record.