Match time set. Will violence also follow?

The excitement surrounding major football matches, like Brazil's upcoming game against Scotland, often brings cities to a standstill, fostering a sense of collective belonging. However, research indicates that the emotional fallout from these games, especially unexpected defeats, can have a darker consequence: an increased risk of domestic violence.

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When Brazil takes the field against Scotland tomorrow at 7 p.m., cities will stop. Bars fill up, traffic changes rhythm, friends meet, and even those working will find a screen or a radio. There is, yes, beauty in this capacity of football to create belonging and collective memory.

Studies in Brazil have found that in the six hours following a disappointing match, the number of reported domestic violence incidents rose by 5.7% in municipalities particularly exposed to sporting disappointment. This effect is amplified when a favored home team suffers an unexpected loss, with studies on American football showing a roughly 10% increase in violence against wives and girlfriends.

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For women who already live under coercion, financial dependence, and isolation, the partner's frustration with the defeat, the difficulty of distancing themselves from the aggressor, and financial losses from betting can precipitate an episode of domestic violence.

Similar patterns have been observed in English football. Research analyzing numerous matches found an 8% rise in domestic violence incidents involving intoxicated aggressors in the 16 hours following games that kicked off before 7 p.m. Interestingly, the increase in incidents was linked to unexpected defeats, suggesting that predictable losses do not carry the same risk.

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In English football, those matches started before 7 p.m. were followed by an increase of 8% in incidents with intoxicated aggressors in the following 16 hours.

These findings underscore the need for responsive public services. While opening more women's police stations has been shown to reduce femicides in urban areas, the impact is less significant in smaller towns and rural regions. This suggests that simply increasing formal services is insufficient. Instead, public responses may need to be tailored to specific high-risk periods, such as the hours following major football games, by increasing outreach, bolstering specialized police teams, and coordinating with social services and shelters.

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Unexpected defeats of home teams that were favorites increased the records of violence by men against wives and girlfriends at home by about 10%.