Mathematical model simulates World Cup 2026 one million times: Who wins the final?

The quest to predict the winner of the 2026 World Cup has moved beyond intuition and superstition, with data science now entering the arena. Steven Stern, a data science professor at Bond University in Australia, has constructed a sophisticated model that simulates the entire tournament one million times.

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Spain appears as the slight favorite to win the title, although by such a narrow margin that any excessive confidence would be premature.

The model calculates each team's probability of advancing through each round, culminating in a champion. While Spain is identified as the slight favorite with a 15.8% chance of lifting the trophy, the margin is so narrow that confidence would be premature. France follows closely at 15.6%, with Argentina at 15.3%. England is further back in fourth place with 11%, a position potentially influenced by their recent loss to Japan.

These four nations, along with Brazil, Croatia, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, form the "group of nine." This elite club has dominated World Cup semi-finals and finals since 1998, with Uruguay being the last champion outside this group in 1950. For Latin America, Argentina's strong showing, with nearly a 25% chance of reaching the final, is a significant highlight. Brazil also remains a contender with a 4.9% probability, while Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay have more modest, yet not negligible, chances.

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Since 1998, this club has accounted for 78.6% of semi-final spots and 100% of finals.

Stern's projections are based on FIFA's Elo rating system, which assesses team strength relative to opponents. He enhanced this by incorporating goal difference data from German researcher Andreas Heuer, allowing for a more realistic simulation of tournament dynamics. The expanded 48-team format of the 2026 World Cup, with its increased number of matches, is also factored in, though the model suggests it may only slightly increase the chances for teams outside the traditional powerhouses.

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Argentina, the current world champion, not only ranks among the top contenders but also has a nearly 25% probability of reaching the final according to the simulations.