Matić: If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, it could seriously affect Merz’s position

Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s smallest federal states, but its election has drawn global attention because the AfD is polling above 40 percent and may be close to winning an absolute majority.

Deutsche Welle journalist Srećko Matić said such a result could have a major effect on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the stability of his government. He pointed to growing dissatisfaction among CDU members with Merz’s leadership, his communication style and the slow pace of reforms that were meant to reverse the party’s declining support.

The AfD benefits when Germany’s problems dominate public discussion without visible progress toward concrete changes, Matić said. He described the possibility that the CDU could seek a different chancellor in the autumn as a serious consequence of the party’s decline and the AfD’s rise.

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The worse the situation in the country, and the more people talk only about bad things while doing less to make concrete changes, the more that naturally serves the AfD’s interests.

Merz entered office promising to revive Germany’s economy and halve the AfD’s support. Instead, Matić said, the AfD has continued to gain popularity and has overtaken the CDU and CSU at the federal level. In Saxony-Anhalt, support of 41 to 42 percent could allow the party to form a government alone, a prospect he called a shock for Germany. The level of international interest is reflected in the presence of 500 to 600 accredited foreign journalists.

Matić also described strong and recently strengthened ties between the AfD and Serbia’s authorities in Belgrade. He said the AfD wants to expand its influence abroad and find allies for a rightward turn, more conservative and sovereignty-focused politics, and positions critical of the European Union, including discussion of leaving the bloc or the eurozone.

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The possibility that the CDU might want to change the chancellor in the autumn and look for someone with whom it could move upward, not merely downward.