Mexico forecasts 63% chance of 'very strong' El Niño

Mexico faces a significant chance of experiencing a "very strong" El Niño event, according to the National Meteorological Service (SMN). The SMN issued a warning on Thursday, stating a 63% probability that the climate phenomenon will reach intense levels by the end of the year, following its confirmation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The SMN indicated that El Niño is projected to continue strengthening in the upcoming months, peaking between November 2026 and January 2027. "Forecasts indicate a rapid evolution," the meteorological authority cautioned. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENOS), involves anomalous warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface, coupled with atmospheric circulation changes.

These episodes typically occur every two to seven years and can last up to 18 months. Globally, El Niño can disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns, heightening the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods across various regions. The SMN noted that impacts in Mexico differ depending on the season.

During winter, El Niño generally brings below-average temperatures to central and northern Mexico, while spring and summer may see warmer and drier conditions. Historically, El Niño increases rainfall in the northwest, northeast, and the Yucatán Peninsula during winter, alongside a higher frequency of cold fronts. Spring anomalies in heat and humidity deficits can elevate the risk of forest fires. Furthermore, the phenomenon increases the likelihood of a prolonged summer "canicula" (reduced rainfall period) and tends to foster greater cyclonic activity in the Pacific while reducing it in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

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The forecasts indicate a rapid evolution.