Mexico gasoline prices to see continued volatility after Hormuz reopening

Despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil tankers, gasoline prices in Mexico are likely to remain volatile in the near future, according to the specialized agency Argus. "In the short term, the market will continue to show volatility, and price normalization will be progressive rather than immediate, in line with global market recovery times," stated Sergio Meana, Business Development Manager for Latin America at Argus. The disruption caused by the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over three months. This waterway typically handles between 14 and 15 million barrels of oil daily. During the blockade, crude and product flow decreased by approximately 95%, resulting in an estimated loss of 12 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf's supply. The global market absorbed this shock through existing surpluses, reduced demand, and massive inventory drawdowns, with about 1.7 billion barrels withdrawn from global reserves between March and the third quarter of 2026. In Mexico, the crisis highlighted the energy sector's structural duality. The Mexican export blend exceeded $90 per barrel during the conflict's peak in March 2026, a significant increase from around $65 and surpassing $80 earlier that month. This price surge generated extraordinary revenue for the federal government, as the 2026 budget assumed an average price of $54.9 per barrel. State oil company Pemex increased its exports by 22% in the first half of March compared to the January-February average. However, this benefit was tempered by increased import costs for gasoline and diesel.

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In the short term, the market will continue to show volatility, and price normalization will be progressive rather than immediate, in line with global market recovery times.