Mexico Must Promote Technology and AI Amid Export Boom and Trade Tensions: Banorte

Mexico needs to enhance the role of advanced technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), within its export strategy to capitalize on increasing shipments to the United States and navigate ongoing trade tensions. A recent analysis by Grupo Financiero Banorte highlights that while these emerging industries currently hold a smaller share compared to established sectors like automotive, they represent a crucial avenue for economic diversification.

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The country's bet on these industries of the future must acquire growing relevance.

Banorte's report, "T-MEC 2026: Between Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Integration," emphasizes that Mexico's commitment to these future-oriented industries must grow. This focus not only serves as a diversification strategy but also allows the country to leverage the global AI revolution. Exports linked to AI are already demonstrating robust growth, with a reported annual increase of 36.6% over the last 12 months. Key components driving this growth for Mexico include processing units, which account for 53.8% of AI-related exports, followed by data transmission equipment, telecommunications equipment, electronic components, and storage units.

This positive performance occurs within a challenging global trade landscape, characterized by threats of tariffs, geopolitical instability, and trade policies from the United States. Nevertheless, Mexican exports have maintained a favorable trajectory, growing at an average annual rate of 7.8% between 2021 and 2025. Mexico's share of U.S. imports reached 16.9%, solidifying its status as the primary trading partner. Exports to the U.S. saw a 7.6% increase in 2025 and accelerated significantly to 21.8% annually between January and April 2026, even as the automotive sector experienced a 4.2% decline due to U.S. tariffs under Section 232.

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AI-related exports already register annual growth of 36.6% in the sum of the last 12 months.

Other manufacturing sectors, including professional and scientific equipment, electrical and electronics, and specialized machinery, have compensated for the automotive industry's weakness. This export dynamism is occurring in the context of the upcoming review of the USMCA (T-MEC) trade agreement, scheduled for July 1. Banorte suggests that the treaty's future should be viewed beyond just trade discussions, encompassing a complex agenda of tariffs, rules of origin, regional content, non-tariff barriers, migration, drug trafficking, national security, and geopolitics. The bank outlines three potential scenarios for the treaty's future: an extension to 2042, annual reviews, or a complete breakdown, assigning a higher probability to the annual review scenario.

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Mexican exports maintained a favorable dynamic: they grew on average 7.8% annually between 2021 and 2025, while Mexico's participation in U.S. imports reached 16.9%, consolidating it as the main trading partner.