Mexico's 2026 hurricane season to begin June 1; forecasters predict 11-15 Atlantic cyclones

Mexico is preparing for its Atlantic hurricane season, which officially commences on June 1, 2026. This date marks the beginning of a six-month period of heightened scientific monitoring for phenomena affecting the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts between 11 and 15 tropical cyclones developing in the Atlantic basin. Of these, projections suggest 7 to 8 will reach tropical storm strength, 3 to 5 will become moderate hurricanes (Category 1 or 2), and 1 to 2 are expected to be intense hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). These numbers are consistent with the historical average of 14 systems recorded between 1991 and 2020.

In parallel, the Pacific Ocean is expected to experience greater activity, with an estimated 18 to 21 cyclones. This brings the national forecast to a potential total of 36 systems across both coastlines. Civil protection agencies stress that proactive preparation is the most effective strategy for safeguarding the population.

Emergency management relies on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, an international standard that categorizes hurricanes based on sustained wind speeds and predicted structural damage. The scale ranges from Category 1, with winds of 119-153 km/h causing damage to roofs and trees, up to Category 5, with winds exceeding 252 km/h, capable of causing total destruction of structures and severe coastal flooding.