Mexico's exports favored by USMCA exemptions amid new U.S. tariffs, says BBVA

Mexico's export sector remains in a relatively strong position despite new U.S. tariffs, primarily because goods meeting the USMCA (T-MEC) rules of origin will be exempt from the levy, according to BBVA Research. The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) announced a 10% tariff on imports from Mexico and 16 other nations, alleging ineffective enforcement against products made with forced labor. However, BBVA noted that the U.S. authority did not present robust evidence to support these claims.

BBVA highlighted that Mexican and Canadian products entering the U.S. under the USMCA framework will continue to be tariff-free. This exemption significantly limits the direct impact on national exports and preserves preferential access to the U.S. market. The financial institution pointed out that following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting broad tariff imposition powers, the U.S. administration has utilized different sections of law to maintain its trade policy.

Despite these trade measures, Mexican exports to the U.S. have shown resilience, growing at an annualized rate of 7.7% as of May 2026. Mexico's share in U.S. imports reached a peak of 17.4%. The USTR acknowledged Mexico has a prohibition on importing goods produced with forced labor but deemed its enforcement lacking. Crucially, the resolution maintains exemptions for goods compliant with the USMCA.

BBVA views this differentiated treatment as reinforcing the USMCA's role in safeguarding Mexico's market access. It also maintains the incentive for increased regional content in exports and proof of compliance with origin rules. While this approach favors Mexico over competitors facing higher tariffs, BBVA cautioned that the measure increases international trade uncertainty and could lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses in the U.S.