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Michelle Bolsonaro, Leila do Vôlei lead Brazil Senate race in Federal District: poll

From Folha de S.Paulo · () Portuguese

Translated from Portuguese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Michelle Bolsonaro leads the race for two Senate seats in Brazil's Federal District with 19% of voter intentions, according to a Datafolha poll.
  • Leila do Vôlei follows with 16%, in a technical tie with Erika Kokay (12%) and Bia Kicis (11%), within the poll's three-point margin of error.
  • A significant 67% of voters remain undecided, indicating a fluid electoral landscape for the Senate race.

Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and Senator Leila do Vôlei are leading the contest for two Federal Senate seats in Brazil's Federal District. A Datafolha poll released Friday shows Bolsonaro with 19% of voter intentions and Vôlei with 16%. The difference falls within the poll's three-percentage-point margin of error, indicating a technical tie.

The survey also reveals that Vôlei is in a similar technical tie with Erika Kokay of the Workers' Party (PT), who garnered 12% of mentions, and Bia Kicis of PL, with 11%. The poll highlights the considerable undecided vote, with 67% of voters yet to make a decision for the Senate election, according to spontaneous responses.

Other candidates trail significantly. Sebastião Coelho of Novo has 3%, while Ronaldo Fonseca (PSD), Tiago (Agir), and Professor Guilherme Amorim (UP) each received 2%. Guto Felício dos Santos (PSDB), Zanata (PSTU), David Horn (PCO), Avenir Rosa (Democrata), and Marley (Avante) each have 1% of intentions.

The poll, which surveyed 910 voters across 28 administrative regions of the Federal District from Tuesday to Friday, is the first Datafolha poll since candidate registrations closed and the official campaign began. It is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under codes DF-07561/2026 and BR-02094/2026 and was commissioned by Folha and TV Globo. The margin of error is three percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

The difference is in the margin of error, which is three percentage points, more or less, a situation considered a technical tie.

— Datafolha pollDescribing the closeness of the race between the leading candidates.
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Originally published by Folha de S.Paulo in Portuguese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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