Middle East Conflict to Slow Global Growth, Raise Inflation: OECD

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is significantly testing the resilience of the global economy, threatening to decelerate worldwide growth and fuel inflation, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD's Secretary-General, Mathias Cormann, stated that the magnitude of the negative impact on growth and the extent of inflation increases will ultimately hinge on the duration and intensity of the disruptions. The organization anticipates "significantly weaker" global economic growth this year due to geopolitical and energy tensions stemming from the conflict. Cormann noted that the OECD had developed two economic scenarios: one assuming temporary disturbances and another anticipating prolonged interruptions to trade and energy routes. He emphasized that a swift resolution to the conflict would be more beneficial for growth prospects than a protracted situation. Prior to the conflict's outbreak, the OECD had been revising its economic forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upward, building on stronger-than-expected global growth of 3.4% in 2025. Factors contributing to this positive outlook included a substantial increase in investments related to artificial intelligence and lower-than-anticipated tariffs in the United States. During its ministerial council meeting in Paris, attended by delegates from 59 countries, the OECD ministers discussed industrial policies aimed at enhancing competitiveness, innovation, energy security, and sustainability without distorting markets. The meeting concluded with the adoption of a new legal instrument on the responsible development and use of quantum technologies and the presentation of new OECD tools for guiding industrial policies and regulating artificial intelligence. Cormann also advocated for resolving trade tensions through dialogue, stressing that preserving the benefits of open markets and a rules-based system is best achieved through cooperation.

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Evidentemente, la magnitud del impacto negativo sobre el crecimiento y el alcance del aumento de la inflación dependerán en última instancia de la duración y de la intensidad de las perturbaciones.