Migration: The New European 'Dublin' and Italy's Great Challenge

A new challenge is emerging for Europe's fragile migration system as seven countries signal their readiness to return asylum seekers to Italy. These individuals had initially registered or applied for asylum in Italy before moving to Central and Northern Europe.

Following Germany, Switzerland, and Austria, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Ireland have joined the process. This collective action increases the pressure on Italy, which is designated as the responsible state for processing these asylum claims under European rules, often due to being the country of first irregular entry via the Mediterranean.

The full implementation of the new European Pact on Migration and Asylum on June 12, 2026, has altered procedural dynamics. The Asylum and Migration Management Regulation replaces the Dublin III Regulation for new applications, maintaining the principle of the country of first entry's responsibility. However, it accelerates the process for taking charge and readmission, limits refusal options, and enhances the use of the Eurodac fingerprint database.

Italy can no longer unilaterally block returns by citing a lack of reception capacity. While it can negotiate the timing and practical details of transfers, it cannot indefinitely ignore its obligation. For applications registered before June 12, the older Dublin III provisions still apply, creating a complex transitional phase. The scale of the issue is significant: in 2025 alone, Italy received over 24,000 transfer requests but accepted only 85. Previous years saw tens of thousands of requests with minimal returns, leaving approximately 80,000 pending transfers since late 2022 when Italy suspended reception citing strained facilities.

While not all these individuals can be automatically transferred due to deadlines, appeals, family ties, and varying legal statuses, the political and administrative burden on Rome is now substantial. Sweden has confirmed it has begun transfers and will continue, while Finland is preparing to resume the process, believing the new Pact provides a sufficient legal basis. Austria is also involved in these preparations.