Millions Departed and Record Low Birth Rate: War Plunges Ukraine into Demographic Crisis

Ukraine is grappling with a profound demographic crisis, characterized by a shrinking population and historically low birth rates, a situation significantly worsened by the ongoing war with Russia. While United Nations projections anticipated a global population decrease starting in 2084, some experts now foresee this occurring as early as 2055, with Ukraine already on this trajectory. Demographer Oleksander Gladun from the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine notes that the war has had a devastating impact on the country's demographics. Beyond the direct loss of soldiers and civilians, mortality rates have risen due to deteriorating chronic health conditions, increased stress levels, and challenges in accessing timely medical care. Simultaneously, birth rates have plummeted as individuals understandably postpone having children amidst the conflict. Official data from Ukraine's Ministry of Justice, cited by "Kyiv Independent," reveals that in 2024, the country registered 495,090 deaths, nearly three times the number of births. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported approximately 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since February 2022. However, independent assessments, such as one from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, estimate Ukrainian military losses to be between 100,000 and 140,000. Amidst this challenging environment, some Ukrainians are choosing to start families. Angelina Kariakina shared her experience with "Voxeurope," explaining that she and her husband decided to have children despite the war, partly driven by a sense of limited time. Although they had a secure home and jobs, the conflict spurred them to act sooner. Kariakina acknowledged the difficult questions about responsibility when bringing a child into a war-torn country, recalling nights spent in basements during shelling or holding a baby while explosions occurred. Despite these hardships, she emphasizes the importance of family and the opportunities her children still have to experience their culture and travel within Ukraine.