Model places Hajduk just outside the Conference League knockout places

Hajduk Split have yet to play a single league-phase match in the Conference League, but a projection has already placed them one point short of the knockout route. Football Meets Data’s model puts Hajduk 25th, just below the position needed to continue in Europe.

Under the competition’s new format, the top eight teams after six matches advance directly to the round of 16. Teams ranked ninth through 24th enter a playoff, while clubs finishing 25th or lower are eliminated. In the model’s specific scenario, Hajduk collect six points through one win, three draws and two defeats, with a goal difference of minus two.

Riga occupy 24th place with seven points, the final playoff position. Egnatia and Thun match Hajduk’s six points, while Jablonec and Hearts finish on four. Midtjylland lead the projection with 16 points, followed by Atalanta and Monaco on 15, and Brighton and Braga on 14.

The projection is not a conventional forecast. Football Meets Data gives each match one simulated outcome based on set rules. If one team has more than a 43% chance of winning, the model assigns it a victory and the most likely score. If neither team crosses that threshold, it records a draw.

The platform’s standard probabilistic model offers a more favorable picture for Hajduk. After the league-phase draw, it ranked the club 21st by expected points and gave it a 73.8% chance of finishing in the top 24. The chance of direct qualification among the top eight stood at 17.5%. The two models therefore show different possible paths, with the single-outcome version leaving Hajduk one point short while several close results could still change the standings.