Moderates' hope – the votes of expatriate Swedes

Sweden's upcoming 2026 election may see a significant influence from its expatriate population, with over 200,000 citizens living abroad eligible to cast their ballots. While this bloc might not be enough to secure a victory for the current governing parties, it could potentially help the Moderate Party surpass the Sweden Democrats in vote count.

Historically, overseas votes have played a pivotal role in Swedish elections. The 1979 parliamentary election serves as a prime example, where the final count, including expatriate votes, tipped the balance in favor of the center-right parties, leading to Torbjörn Fälldin forming a government with the Moderates and the Liberal People's Party. In 2022, the margin of victory for the Tidö parties was narrow, with only 45,000 votes separating them from their opponents.

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You are not always directly affected by what you vote for.

For many expatriate Swedes, issues such as crime, security, and immigration are paramount concerns. Anna Malmborg, who resides in Estepona, Spain, with her husband, notes that these topics are frequently discussed among their social circle. Healthcare access has also emerged as a significant issue, particularly as expatriates age and plan for long-term stays abroad. Malmborg contrasts her experiences with Spain's healthcare system, where she received follow-up appointments within days and her husband secured an X-ray the next day, with perceived longer wait times in Sweden.

Despite living abroad, many expatriates maintain a strong connection to Swedish politics, driven by factors like having children who live in Sweden or a belief in the principle of voting on issues that may not directly impact the voter. Surveys indicate that the Moderate Party has historically garnered strong support among expatriate Swedes, significantly more than the Social Democrats. While recent comprehensive studies on expatriate voting preferences are scarce, the potential impact of this demographic remains a key consideration in the upcoming election.

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Crime and immigration are definitely things that are discussed here. Then the healthcare issue becomes relevant when you get a little older and plan to live abroad for a longer time.