Monsoon arrives in Kerala three days late; India faces risk of deficient rainfall

The Southwest Monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala, marking its onset on Thursday. This arrival is three days later than its normal schedule and five days past the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) initial forecast. While the monsoon is expected to progress and cover most of India by the third week of June, concerns linger regarding the overall volume of rainfall.

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During the past 2 days, convective cloudiness has increased over the Southeast Arabian Sea. The depth of westerlies over Southeast Arabian Sea extends up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. The strength of Westerlies in the lower levels is about 20-25 knots. There has been widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala during the past 2 days. Considering all the above satisfied conditions, Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala on June 4.

The IMD has issued a forecast indicating a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, meaning rainfall could be less than 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This prediction follows an earlier forecast from May 15, which anticipated the monsoon's arrival around May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days. The current outlook suggests a below-normal monsoon season.

Despite these concerns, the monsoon's onset over Kerala is a significant milestone. In India, where agriculture heavily relies on rainfall, 51% of farmed land is rain-fed, contributing to 40% of the nation's food production. The timely arrival of the monsoon, even with potential volume issues, is vital for the agricultural sector.

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We are expecting a good surge during the next one week. We can expect monsoon to reach parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, southern parts of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Konkan, parts of Maharashtra, northeastern states. So it is looking good for the next few days.

Weather officials noted increased convective cloudiness over the Southeast Arabian Sea and favorable wind conditions supporting the monsoon's advance. Rainfall has been widespread across Kerala in the preceding days. The monsoon's northern limit currently passes through Mangalore, Uthagamandalam, Kodaikanal, and Thoothukudi. Conditions are favorable for its further progression into parts of the central Arabian Sea, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and northeastern states over the next few days.

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Over Kerala, rainfall will reduce this week. Otherwise, the monsoon is likely to reach many parts including parts of Northwest India by June 15-16.