More Developers Turn Optimistic as They Bet on Stronger Home Sales

Confidence among Poland’s property developers has improved sharply in just two months. In August, 57.5% of surveyed companies expected housing sales to rise in the coming months, while only 4.7% predicted a decline.

The shift followed a strong July, which persuaded many developers that summer demand had held up better than expected. In June, only 18.2% had forecast higher sales, while 26.8% expected them to fall. The August index measuring changes in sales momentum reached 0.53, the best result recorded this year.

“Two months ago, developers were wondering how deep the summer slowdown would be. Meanwhile, July brought very strong sales,” said Ewa Palus, Tabelaofert’s chief analyst. She said the latest reading suggested the industry no longer viewed July’s performance as a one-off event.

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Two months ago, developers were wondering how deep the summer slowdown would be. Meanwhile, July brought very strong sales, and the August reading shows that the industry does not view this result as a one-off event.

Robert Chojnacki, founder of the Tabelaofert housing portal, said the market had performed better than expected without further interest-rate cuts or a new government programme bringing customers into sales offices. “Some buyers simply stopped waiting for a better moment,” he said. Buyers saw that prices were not falling and that a broad choice of homes remained available, he added.

The more optimistic sales outlook has not translated into expectations of a sharp price surge. Some 73.8% of developers forecast stable prices, compared with 19.3% who expect increases and 6% who predict declines. The price-change index rose from 0.00 in July to 0.13 in August, remaining well below the sales-momentum index. Tabelaofert said developers therefore had much greater confidence in stronger sales than in higher prices.

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Some buyers simply stopped waiting for a better moment.