More uncertainty, less optimism among Polish entrepreneurs

Poland's economy exhibited robust year-on-year growth of 3.4% in the first quarter, positioning it among the European Union's fastest-expanding nations. However, this growth rate represents a slowdown from the 4.1% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025 and fell below the predictions of many economists. This suggests that factors beyond seasonal influences, such as broader economic headwinds, are beginning to affect the country's trajectory.

The geopolitical landscape is significantly dampening business morale. Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist at Konfederacja Lewiatan, noted that the conflict in the Middle East, erupting in late February, immediately sparked concerns about supply chains, fuel prices, and energy costs. This has amplified existing uncertainty, leading Polish enterprises to adopt a cautious "wait and see" approach despite generally positive long-term prospects.

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No cóż, nie ma co ukrywać, że na nastroje w biznesie duży wpływ ma sytuacja geopolityczna. Wybuch konfliktu na Bliskim Wschodzie pod koniec lutego spowodował natychmiastowe obawy o łańuchy dostaw, wzrost cen paliw, surowców, energii itp. Niepewność, która już wcześniej była wszechobecna, teraz jeszcze wzrosła. Polskie przedsiębiorstwa wciąż mają dobre perspektywy przed sobą, ale wyraźnie weszły w tryb „wait and see”.

This lack of optimism is reflected in recent economic indicators. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Polish manufacturing in May remained below the 50-point threshold, signaling continued weakness in the sector. Participants in the survey cited a shortage of new orders and a reluctance to undertake new investments as primary concerns. Global economic instability, including weak demand in Europe and geopolitical tensions, further exacerbates these issues by raising transport costs and threatening supply chain stability.

Recent surveys from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) paint a mixed picture of business sentiment. The Monthly Business Climate Index (MIK) dropped to 94.5 points in May, falling below the neutral 100-point level and reaching its lowest point since early 2026. While wages and financial liquidity remained above neutral, indicators for production capacity, investments, sales value, new orders, and even employment dipped below 100 points. Dr. Katarzyna Dębkowska of PIE attributes this decline primarily to weakening demand, resulting in lower sales and fewer new orders, particularly in the trade and construction sectors, underscoring a growing caution among entrepreneurs.

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Głównym powodem pogorszenia się koniunktury jest osłabienie popytu, co skutkuje niższą sprzedażą i ograniczeniem nowych zamówień, szczególnie w handlu i budownictwie. Nasze badania pokazują rosnącą ostrożność przedsiębiorców, co sugeruje podwyższoną niepewność i ograniczoną aktywność rozwojową.