Morena Heads Into 2027 Election With a Clear Lead, Buendía & Márquez Poll Finds

Morena is entering Mexico’s 2027 federal election process with a wide lead, while the opposition remains divided and unable to establish a clear runner-up, according to a national household poll by Buendía & Márquez for EL UNIVERSAL.

If the election were held today, 35% of respondents would vote for Morena. The PAN would receive 11%, the PRI 9%, Movimiento Ciudadano 9%, the PVEM 5% and the PT 2%. Another 28% did not state a preference. The poll’s margin of error does not allow a statistically clear determination of which opposition party ranks second.

When undecided and nonresponses are excluded, Morena reaches 48% of effective support. The PAN has 15%, the PRI 13% and Movimiento Ciudadano 12%. New parties remain marginal in the survey: PAZ received no mentions, while Somos received 1%. The latter was measured under its former name, Somos México, before the National Electoral Institute rejected that designation.

The PAN has repeatedly posted the highest estimate among opposition parties across the polling series, suggesting a small but consistent advantage. However, the differences among the PAN, PRI and Movimiento Ciudadano are not large enough to confirm a second-place party with statistical certainty.

Voters are split over the country’s direction. Forty-one percent say Mexico is moving in a good or very good direction, while 43% say it is moving in a bad or very bad direction. Among those who believe the country is doing badly, the PAN has 27% of effective support, the PRI and Movimiento Ciudadano each have 19%, and Morena retains 22%. Morena also has the strongest party image, with 56% holding a positive view and 29% a negative one. The PAN and PRI have the most negative balances, at minus 27 and minus 39 points respectively.