Morocco's 2027-2029 Budget: Economic Resilience Faces Public Spending Effectiveness Challenges

Morocco's finance minister outlined a government roadmap for 2027-2029, projecting economic resilience through improved tax collection, a shrinking budget deficit, and managed debt. The plan also signals continued public investment and accelerated social reforms. While the presentation offers a positive official outlook, a deeper analysis reveals potential shortcomings.

The core of the critique lies in the effectiveness of public spending. The focus has shifted from merely how much the state spends to the tangible results of that investment. Key questions now revolve around whether each dirham spent truly contributes to sustainable growth, job creation, and improved public services, while also addressing regional disparities.

The government highlights economic "resilience," attributing difficulties to external factors like geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. However, this narrative is incomplete. While reforms play a role, internal constraints such as project delays, uneven policy effectiveness, and slow job creation from growth are also significant. Resilience, the ability to absorb shocks, does not automatically equate to a permanent economic transformation.

A crucial distinction is made between weathering crises, transforming the production model, and improving citizens' living standards. These three aspects do not always advance in lockstep. The projected 5.3% growth for 2026, while seemingly positive, is largely driven by a temporary recovery in agricultural output following severe droughts. This agricultural rebound is seen as a short-term, unsustainable effect.

The article urges a more nuanced view, differentiating between the contributions of agriculture, non-agricultural sectors, investment, and consumption. True structural change requires sustained value creation across productive sectors, not just a single good harvest. The quality of growth, therefore, remains a key concern, with a need to assess how effectively the economy is generating jobs and boosting exports beyond seasonal agricultural gains.