Moscow’s strategy toward Kyiv is a war of attrition

Russia’s plan for a quick victory over Ukraine failed, but Moscow has found another way to pursue the war: attrition. Artur Bartkiewicz says the strategy rests on Russia’s demographic and industrial advantages rather than an imminent Ukrainian collapse.

“Russia has a basic advantage over Ukraine. It has more than 140 million citizens, while Ukraine has around 40 million,” Bartkiewicz said. Ukraine continues to face personnel shortages and difficulties with mobilization. Russia has also suffered heavy losses, but it retains a substantial pool of people who could be mobilized. President Vladimir Putin is wary of ordering another mobilization because it could increase public dissatisfaction.

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Russia has a basic advantage over Ukraine. It has more than 140 million citizens, while Ukraine has around 40 million.

Russia’s economy, meanwhile, is geared toward conducting the war. Moscow still has the capacity to produce missiles and drones. “Russia has the means to attack Ukraine, while Ukraine has less and less with which to defend itself,” Bartkiewicz said.

Ukraine’s air defenses are a particular concern. Supplies of missiles used by Patriot systems and other Western-supplied equipment are limited, and increasing production takes time. Bartkiewicz says the approaching winter could therefore be exceptionally difficult for Ukraine. Russia may again target energy infrastructure, hoping that shortages of electricity and heating will weaken Ukrainian society’s resilience.

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Russia has the means to attack Ukraine, while Ukraine has less and less with which to defend itself.

Putin’s objective is not only to seize more territory. He also needs to end the war in a way he can present to Russians as a victory. “Vladimir Putin now has to limit the losses, in a way. He has to emerge from this war telling Russians, ‘I won, I achieved my goal,’” Bartkiewicz said. That goal is primarily the capture of Donbas and the lasting weakening of Ukraine.

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Vladimir Putin now has to limit the losses, in a way. He has to emerge from this war telling Russians, ‘I won, I achieved my goal.’

Bartkiewicz links Putin’s fear of defeat to the foundations of his power and Russia’s political system. “He knows that the legitimacy of his power is strength,” he said. A withdrawal could be interpreted by Russian elites as evidence of weakness and create conditions for a struggle over power in the Kremlin. A change of leader would not necessarily bring a change in policy toward the West, Bartkiewicz added, because he sees few strong liberal forces within Russia’s elite offering a fundamentally different direction.

The discussion also touched on the possible relocation of Russian government institutions east of the Urals. Ukrainian drone attacks are increasingly reaching areas around Moscow, while Russia is deepening relations with China and other non-European countries. Bartkiewicz said a lasting shift of Russia’s center of gravity eastward would carry an important geopolitical symbolism. The text ends during his warning that Russia should prepare for confrontation with a China-led bloc.

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He knows that the legitimacy of his power is strength.