Myanmar inflation hits 25% on US-Iran fuel shock: World Bank | The Straits Times (SG) | Myanmar, inflation, World Bank, fuel prices, Middle East conflict, civil war, poverty, Yangon, Strait of Hormuz, U.S., Iran, Kemoh Mansaray, AFP, June 16, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027

Myanmar's inflation rate has climbed to nearly 25 percent, driven by global fuel price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict, which have compounded the economic strain caused by the country's ongoing civil war. The World Bank reported these figures on June 16, also announcing a reduced growth forecast for the current financial year.

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The fuel shock has reignited inflation pressures.

The nation has been embroiled in civil conflict since the military seized power in a 2021 coup, leading to widespread instability and a significant increase in poverty among its population of over 50 million. Myanmar imports approximately 90 percent of its fuel, making it particularly vulnerable to disruptions, such as potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz, especially since the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

According to the World Bank's biannual Myanmar Economic Monitor report, inflation reached 24.6 percent year-on-year in April. This surge has led the bank to cut its economic growth outlook for 2026-2027 to two percent, down from an earlier estimate of three percent. The World Bank described Myanmar's economy as "stabilizing at low levels," but warned that the "renewed fuel shock magnifies longstanding structural weaknesses and leaves the outlook highly vulnerable to further disruption."

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What this means is household purchasing power has gone down, and these households were already facing very thin buffers with high poverty levels.

Senior economist Kemoh Mansaray stated that the fuel shock has reignited inflation pressures, directly impacting household purchasing power. He noted that these households were already struggling with limited financial buffers and high poverty levels. Inflation for the 12 months ending in March stood at 21.1 percent. The report also indicated that poverty levels in 2025 are projected to reach 29.9 percent, remaining significantly above pre-2021 trends.

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Because we’re struggling just to afford food, there are children we can’t send to school.

Citizens are feeling the severe economic pinch. One 28-year-old father in Yangon, speaking anonymously for security reasons, shared the hardship: "Because we’re struggling just to afford food, there are children we can’t send to school." A female shopkeeper in Yangon, also requesting anonymity, lamented the crippling effect of soaring prices on her business and family finances. "Our income and expenses don’t match. We just manage day by day," she said, adding, "Prices only go up, they never go down. Now no matter how much we earn, it’s still not enough."

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Our income and expenses don’t match. We just manage day by day.