Myanmar's Pro-Democracy Revolution Weakens Amid Military Gains

Myanmar's pro-democracy revolution is faltering five years into the civil war, as the military reasserts control over the battlefield. Rebel groups are facing mounting pressure due to the loss of allies and diminishing international support.

The country descended into civil war following the 2021 military coup that ousted the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Monitoring groups report that over 100,000 people have been killed since the conflict erupted. At one point, rebel groups posed a significant threat to the military junta's grip on power.

However, the Myanmar military has regained the upper hand, largely due to support from China. "The revolution is now a long-term struggle. Even members who have been fighting for years are starting to have doubts and wonder if this revolution can still succeed," stated a People's Defense Force (PDF) section commander from a secret training camp in the Sagaing region.

While the PDF and ethnic groups achieved some successes, including a joint operation in 2023 that neared Mandalay, the second-largest city, the military regained control after two major ethnic armed groups, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), agreed to a China-brokered ceasefire. Without their support, the less experienced PDF is now retreating, facing shortages of expertise, weapons, and ammunition. China has also mediated significant ceasefires with rebel groups allied with the PDF, while supporting a new civilian administration formed by the junta as Myanmar seeks to re-engage with the international community.

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The revolution is now a long-term struggle. Even members who have been fighting for years are starting to have doubts and wonder if this revolution can still succeed.