NATO adapts, aiming to navigate Trump era and bolster European defense

The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara is poised to be a test of U.S. President Donald Trump's engagement, with host President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeking to leverage the occasion to display his influence. Erdoğan, who maintains relationships with both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, is in a unique position to shape discussions.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte highlighted that European NATO members have placed over 260 billion euros in arms and defense procurement orders with the United States, supporting nearly 200,000 American jobs. This underscores a significant shift: while Europe is rearming and increasing its defense capabilities, the U.S. seeks to maintain its stake in European defense industries. Simultaneously, NATO is increasingly evolving into a more European-centric alliance.

The conflict in Iran and the widening Middle East crisis have drawn U.S. strategic attention away from Europe. Trump's criticism of NATO is also linked to the Iran conflict, as not all European nations have supported U.S. and Israeli operations in the region. The core of the Ankara summit will focus on reorganizing European defense, demanding greater financial investment, enhanced defense industry capacity, larger troop commitments, and new defense planning strategies.

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European NATO countries currently have over 260 billion euros in arms and defense procurement orders in the United States. The orders mean almost 200,000 jobs in the American defense industry.

European NATO countries have boosted defense spending by approximately 220 billion euros over the past two years. Funding Ukraine's defense has largely fallen to Europe, with European nations purchasing arms from the U.S. for transfer to Ukraine. However, this burden-sharing is not uniform across all European countries, causing friction. The summit aims to solidify a permanent support model for Ukraine, targeting an annual commitment of around 70 billion euros in military aid. This includes approximately 30 billion euros from the EU's existing 90 billion euro Ukraine funding package and an additional 40 billion euros from bilateral programs among NATO countries, excluding the U.S.

While the U.S. remains an indispensable security guarantor due to its nuclear deterrent, Europe is increasingly responsible for its conventional defense. The summit seeks to integrate Ukraine more closely with European defense industries, ensuring predictable access to weapons, ammunition, and funding beyond the next year or two. Germany, Britain, the Nordic countries, Poland, and the Baltic states are currently the primary supporters of Ukraine. The transition signifies a more European-led defense posture within the alliance.

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European NATO countries have increased their defense spending by about 220 billion euros in the last two years.