NATO experts foresee turbulence, not catastrophe, amid potential U.S. shifts

Foreign policy experts believe that while statements from the United States, the most powerful military force in NATO, carry significant weight, they are subject to rapid change. This potential for shifts does not necessarily signal an existential threat to NATO's existence, but rather suggests a period of "unpleasant turbulence."

Elīna Vrobļevska, a lecturer at Riga Stradins University and deputy director of the Centre for East European Policy Studies, suggests that the alliance will likely face a period of instability. She stresses that for Latvia, it is crucial to maintain a consistent focus on its security interests and continuously advocate for them within the alliance.

Toms Rātfelders, a lecturer at Riga Stradins University and a researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, noted that it will take time for European nations to mobilize their military capabilities. In the interim, he highlighted the significant role of U.S. President Donald Trump in regional security, given that the U.S. possesses the most powerful military within NATO. He reminded that "NATO is not quite the same without the U.S."

The experts' comments come amid discussions about the future of the transatlantic alliance and the role of the United States within it. While acknowledging the U.S.'s indispensable contribution, there is a recognized need for European partners to enhance their own defense capacities to ensure collective security.