NATO Summit in Ankara: Europe Seeks Clarity on Trump's Plans Amidst Alliance Uncertainty

European leaders are adopting a damage-control strategy for the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, as U.S. President Trump's attendance and intentions remain uncertain. Trump's participation was confirmed late, reportedly influenced by his appreciation for Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Earlier threats to withdraw the U.S. from NATO over European support in the Iran conflict have heightened anxieties.

The summit's duration and the final communiqué have been shortened to prevent open conflict between Trump and other allies. Efforts to appease the U.S. president are underway, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reportedly praising Trump's actions in the Iran operation and his role in bolstering European defense.

Maintaining a semblance of unity within NATO is considered crucial, especially given the ongoing war in Ukraine. There are fears that a desperate Russian President Vladimir Putin might exploit internal divisions to test NATO's resolve on the eastern flank, potentially through provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. Such actions could aim to demonstrate that the U.S. would not defend its allies, thereby pressuring Europe to cease aid to Ukraine.

Sophia Besch, an expert at the Carnegie Foundation, noted that European nations have low expectations for rebuilding trust with the Trump administration. Their primary hope is for greater predictability from the U.S. This uncertainty necessitates careful planning by European capitals to fill potential American gaps in intelligence, air defense, long-range precision weapons, and troop transport. However, clarity on these matters is unlikely to emerge from the Ankara meeting.

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Europeans expect very little from the Trump administration. They are not counting on rebuilding the trust on which the alliance's credibility has been based for decades. The only thing I still hope for is greater predictability from the USA.