New CJNG leader may escalate violence post-World Cup, specialists warn

Security experts warn that the ascension of Juan Carlos Valencia González, alias "El 03," as the new leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) could trigger a surge in violence. Valencia González, the stepson of former leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, "El Mencho," is identified by U.S. authorities as the successor and is subject to a $5 million bounty.

Specialists suggest Valencia González, described as a "narco junior," will likely seek "high-impact events" to demonstrate his "fierceness, recklessness, and boldness" and solidify his control. His alleged associates, Hugo Gonzalo Gaitán, "el Sapo," and Ricardo Ruíz Velasco, "el doble R," are characterized as "hardline warriors." Despite these concerns, Mexico has seen a temporary lull in homicides, attributed to a "World Cup truce."

This period has allowed cartels to shift focus from high-profile violence to other illicit activities such as sex tourism, real estate fraud, extortion, and high-end drug sales. However, experts anticipate a return to increased violence once the World Cup concludes, especially as international attention wanes. The current low homicide rate, the lowest in eight years, is seen as a temporary measure.

Analysts like David Saucedo and Andrés Sumano agree that organized crime groups are using the global event as cover. They note that widespread violence during the World Cup would likely provoke a severe reaction from both Mexican and U.S. governments. The U.S. Department of State has identified Valencia González as responsible for large-scale drug trafficking and numerous violent crimes, underscoring the potential threat he poses.