New Israeli Poll: Winter's Party Gains, Smotrich's Falls Below Threshold

A new poll indicates a significant shift in Israel's political landscape, with Ofer Winter's newly formed Amcha Yisrael Party poised to secure six seats in the Knesset. This projection, published by Walla, also shows the Religious Zionist Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, falling below the electoral threshold with just 2.6% of the vote.

The poll results present a challenge for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc, which received only 43 seats. Even with the potential addition of Winter's party, the coalition would reach just 49 seats, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority government. The broader opposition bloc garnered 59 seats, while Arab parties secured 12.

Winter's entry into politics appears to be directly affecting parties with similar voter bases. Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar noted that Winter's candidacy likely pushed Smotrich below the threshold, estimating that Winter took approximately one seat from the Religious Zionist Party. The poll also suggests a decline in support for Gilad Erdan, with Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism also reportedly losing votes.

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In my estimation, he took approximately one seat from the Religious Zionist Party.

Other parties' standings in the poll include Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party leading with 25 seats, followed by Likud with 21. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad received 15 seats, the Democrats led by Yair Golan secured 10, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu obtained nine. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit maintained support with eight seats, while United Torah Judaism and Shas each received seven. The United Arab List also garnered seven seats, with Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, at the bottom with five.

Several other parties, including Zionist Home–The Reservists, Blue and White, Israel First, and Unity, remained below the electoral threshold, highlighting the volatility and fragmentation within the national camp following Winter's political debut.

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The poll also indicates a drastic decline in Gilad Erdan’s strength as a result of Winter’s candidacy. It appears that Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism are also losing votes following the entry of the