New Zealand’s Ruling Coalition Leads Poll Two Months Before Election

New Zealand’s three-party ruling coalition is on course to win a second term, according to a poll published two months before the Nov. 7 general election. Together, the National Party, New Zealand First and ACT would secure 64 of Parliament’s 120 seats.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, conducted among 1,000 people last week, put National at 29%, down two percentage points. The result followed several turbulent weeks for the party, including an unsuccessful leadership challenge against Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

The coalition’s smaller partners moved in opposite directions. New Zealand First fell 0.7 points to 8.4%, while the libertarian ACT Party climbed 3.2 points to 10.5%. The Greens gained 3.8 points to reach 13.9%.

Labour dropped 1.9 points to 25.9%, its weakest showing in more than two years. Both major parties are struggling to persuade voters. National has lost support as high living costs and rising interest rates weaken confidence in its economic promises, while Labour has not convinced voters that it offers a strong alternative.

That disillusionment is benefiting smaller parties, which could have an outsized role in deciding who forms the next government. The centrist Opportunity Party polled at 4.5%, below the 5% threshold for entering Parliament, despite reaching as high as 9.5% in other surveys.